Senaste inläggen

Av Erik Tolomore - 9 februari 2011 15:37

Höjda skatter, lyder stridsropet från S-kvinnorna, som igår presenterade rapporten Mer vård för pengarna och mer pengar till vård.

”Ska vi ha en bra rättvis sjukvård kommer det att kräva resurser. Då kan man inte tävla om skattesänkningar eller bli moderater light. Vi måste våga stå för det här”, sade S-kvinnornas ordförande Nalin Pekgul till DN.

Socialdemokraterna måste ha modet att inte ge sig in i ”skattesänkartävlingen”, hävdar Pekgul, som också riktar kritik mot att ”privata aktörer” plockar ut ”stora vinster”.

Problemet går inte att komma runt: en äldre befolkning är inte bara mer vårdkrävande, det innebär också att det blir färre i arbetande ålder som bidrar till finansieringen.

Den tekniska utvecklingen med nya behandlingsmetoder bidrar dessutom till att göra vården dyrare.

Det lär bli nödvändigt att låta vården få en större bit av skattekakan. Men utrymmet för att höja skatten, utan att det går ut över tillväxten, är begränsat. Trots att alliansen sänkt skatterna med närmare 100 miljarder kronor har Sverige fortfarande världens näst högsta skattetryck, drygt 45 procent, endast överträffat av Danmark.

Ökade inslag av privat finansierad vård är, som Lundaprofessorn Carl Hampus Lyttkens siar i SNS-rapporten Vårdens utmaningar, med all sannolikhet oundvikliga.

Om inte Socialdemokraterna förmår tänka om och tänka nytt på egen hand lär verkligheten så småningom tvinga dem.

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Av Erik Tolomore - 9 februari 2011 15:36

Tiotusentals frihetstörstande egyptier återupptog folkfesten på Tahrirtorget i Kairo på söndagen med demonstrationer och musik. Kravet från aktivisterna är entydigt: president Hosni Mubarak måste avgå. Inga eftergifter, som upplösningen av ledningen för Mubaraks parti NDP häromdagen, ändrar på detta.

Bland befolkningen i övrigt har det dock möjligen börjat infinna sig en viss trötthet och splittring.

Demokratirörelsens fredliga kamp mot en förtryckande regim förtjänar allt tänkbart stöd. Mycket talar också för att det är en tidsfråga innan diktatorn tvingas bort. Men bortom det revolutionsromantiska ruset pockar en avgörande fråga på svar:

Vad skall komma sedan?

På söndagen inleddes diskussioner mellan regeringen, företrädd av vicepresident Omar Suleiman, och representanter för delar av den fragmentiserade oppositionen, inklusive Muslimska brödraskapet. Samtalen är en direkt konsekvens av det folkliga upproret och i sig en delseger. Framför allt är de nödvändiga.

Övergången till demokrati och fria val kan bli en komplicerad och utdragen process. Den är inte avklarad för att Mubarak försvinner. I synnerhet inte i ett land där regimen har dominerat det politiska livet i flera decennier, säkerhetspolisen brutalt tystat oliktänkare och meningsmotståndare inte fått utrymme att organisera sig.

Utan en plan och en struktur för hur landet skall ställas om är risken uppenbar att Egypten går ur askan i elden. Anarki eller ett islamistiskt maktövertagande med sharialagar är något annat än vad revoltörerna kämpat för under de senaste veckorna.

En central del i det mödosamma arbetet för en fungerande demokrati är att få en ny konstitution på plats. Enligt uppgifter på söndagen mynnade dialogen mellan regeringen och oppositionen ut i en överenskommelse om att bilda en kommitté som skall föreslå ändringar i författningen. Dessutom skall Suleiman ha accepterat att upphäva de hatade undantagslagarna så snart säkerheten tillåter och öppna för yttrandefrihet.

Det verkar lovande, men oppositionen var inte övertygad:

”Ingen vet vem som pratar med vem i det här skedet. Det hela hanteras av militären och det är en del av problemet”, sade Mohamed ElBaradei, en enande kraft inom oppositionen.

Trycket på demokratiska förändringar måste fortsatt vara högt, både inom och utanför landets gränser.

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Av Erik Tolomore - 9 februari 2011 15:36

Centerpartiet är darrigt, Kristdemokraterna skakade. Medan Moderaterna blir större och större i opinionsmätningarna blir C och KD bara mindre. Snart är de försvinnande små.

Krisens kastvindar har hotat att blåsa bort både Maud Olofsson (C) och – inte minst – Göran Hägglund (KD) från deras ordförandeposter. Men kring Folkpartiet och partiledaren Jan Björklund är det förvånansvärt lugnt. Lugnet i stormens öga?

För inte heller FP rosar opinionsmarknaden.

I den senaste Demoskopmätningen får FP 5,9 procent. Visserligen bättre än Centerns usla 4,0 och KD:s katastrofala 2,7 men definitivt inget att yvas över.

I riksdagsvalet 1985 nådde Folkpartiet 14,2 procent. Det var den omtalade Westerbergeffekten. 1994, i Bengt Westerbergs sista val som FP-ledare, blev det bara 7,2 procent.

Lars Leijonborg inledde uselt. Under hans ledning noterade Folkpartiet en all time low med 4,7 procent 1998. I följande val förvandlades Leijonborg till Leijonkung och kammade hem 13,4 procent. Fyra år senare hade stödet för FP och Leijonborg närapå halverats.

Någon Björklundeffekt har inte noterats än.

Folkpartiledaren har tagit, dominerat och vunnit debatten om skolan. Men väljarnas kärlek blev aldrig hans belöning.

Folkpartiet drar i sin egen val analys slutsatsen att uppmärksamheten kring partiets mest röstvinnande profilfråga, skolpolitiken, också bidrar till att den övriga politiken kommer i skymundan. FP har helt enkelt ingen riktig ”andrafråga” som kan attrahera väljare.

Sant, men verkligheten är mer komplicerad än så.

I ett politiskt spel där nästan alla partier trängs i mitten, fokuserade på plånboksfrågor, har Folkpartiet varit tydligt, profilerat och principfast, med klara ställningstaganden för euroanslutning, för Natomedlemskap och för kärnkraft.

Detta klarspråk har inte hjälpt.

Åtminstone delvis därför att FP, med tanke på bland annat finanskris och vacklande stöd för Sveriges närvaro i Afghanistan, i dessa frågor inte legat rätt i tiden på samma sätt som när det gäller skolan.

Samtidigt måste det viktigaste för ett parti vara att bilda opinion. Vilket existensberättigande har ett parti som bara driver med den ideologiska strömmen?

Det borde bekymra FP när ett i grunden paternalistiskt parti som Miljöpartiet med viss trovärdighet kan framställa sig som ett liberalt alternativ.

Att det gått så illa har flera orsaker. Delvis beror det på att Folkpartiet i exempelvis frågor som rör den personliga integriteten alltför ofta hamnar på Storebrors sida.

Folkpartiet behöver återuppfinna sig självt, formulera en liberalism för framtiden. Även om Jan Björklund inte är ifrågasatt befinner sig partiet ungefär där Moderaterna stod efter valförlusten 2002.

Ingen lätt sits.

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Av Erik Tolomore - 9 februari 2011 15:35

Rädda Barnens årsrapport om barnfattigdom kommer med fler frågor än svar.

Där jag sitter och skriver detta, på ett kafé i centrala Malmö, är det svårt att tro på den dystra rapporten.

Tonårstjejerna vid bordet intill knappar på sina nya mobiler medan de diskuterar priser; de tycker det är för dyrt att färga håret och att få naglarna fixade. Babyflickan i Mountain Buggy-vagnen verkar inte ha fått sina kläder i arv och hennes grå fårskinn kostar bortåt två tusenlappar.

Det handlar så klart om segregation: en kvart härifrån ser vardagen annorlunda ut. I Rosengård levde 61,4 procent av alla barn i fattigdom 2008, enligt Rädda Barnens definition, alltså i familjer som har låg inkomststandard eller får socialbidrag.

Mellan 1991 och 2008 ökade denna fattigdom i Malmö från 25 till 31 procent, medan den ekonomiska utsattheten minskade till 17 procent i Göteborg och 14 procent i Stockholm.

Men vem är ”fattig”?

I Sverige innebär barnfattigdom sällan att barn behöver svälta eller frysa, medger Rädda Barnen. Det handlar snarare om att barn inte har råd att rida, inte har dator hemma, inte kan följa med på skolresan, aldrig går på kalas – för presenter kostar – och aldrig kräver att få ett par Converse eller en mobil.

Fattigt jämfört med hur andra lever.

Men det kan också betyda att det gäller att äta riktigt mycket i skolan. Hemma är kylen tom.

Föräldrars utsatthet går i arv och den som är arbetslös som ung löper flera gånger större risk att vara marginaliserad också som vuxen, har Lundaforskaren Anna Angelin visat:

Mer än var tionde av de unga i tjugoårsåldern som under 90-talskrisen gick utan jobb länge eller levde på socialbidrag var arbetslös också tio år senare. Den höga ungdomsarbetslösheten idag kan alltså sätta spår i framtiden.

Fattiga unga växer upp till fattiga vuxna – med fattiga barn. Ett problem att ta på största allvar. Att Rädda Barnens rapporter regelmässigt får stor uppmärksamhet är alltså inte så märkligt.

Ändå känns det stötande att bristen på mobiltelefon eller hockeymundering kallas ”fattigdom” – i en värld där barn svälter ihjäl. Det ger också Sverige en käftsmäll för den generösa invandringspolitiken – invandrarbarn har det sällan lika bra materiellt som infödda svenska. Men kanske bättre än i sitt gamla hemland?

Det är inte så märkligt att familjer där föräldrarna skaffat sig utbildning och jobb först och barn sedan i regel har det bättre ställt än de där barnen kommit tidigt.

Eller att en ensam mamma har mindre pengar än två föräldrar. Barnfattigdomen var drygt tre gånger så hög bland barn med en ensamstående förälder, uppger Rädda Barnen. Jaha.

Inte heller den här uppgiften förvånar: barnfattigdomen är mer än fem gånger så hög bland barn med utländsk bakgrund.

Har då inte invandrarbarn rätt till samma materiella standard som svenskfödda? Absolut. Men det kräver samma förutsättningar, som att båda föräldrarna förvärvsarbetar. Det är inte barnens fel att mamma och pappa inte har jobb när familjen tvingats söka ett nytt hemland. Det är ingens fel. Men konsekvensen av att inte jobba och ha flera munnar att mätta kan bli denna relativa fattigdom.

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Av Erik Tolomore - 9 februari 2011 15:34

Från London fortplantas i dagarna en ny bild av Sverige över världen:

En ociviliserad bananmonarki med en rättsskipning som mer liknar Egyptens än Storbritanniens. Där ondskefulla åklagare är emot män och inte följer de juridiska procedurer som gäller, utan sysslar med förföljelse.

Kort sagt, rättvisan påstås vara hotad i Sverige.

Denna bild sprids främst av Julian Assanges advokater, allt för att Storbritannien inte skall utlämna den kände Wikileaksgrundaren till Sverige så att han kan förhöras kring misstankar om sexbrott.

Skall svenskar känna sig träffade och obekväma, rentav skamsna, över denna bild av Sverige?

Nej. Och det av flera skäl.

Det finns skillnader mellan svensk och brittisk sexbrottslagstiftning, men de skall inte överdrivas. I något avseende är brittisk lag till och med tuffare. Och Sverige skulle klara att ge Assange, om han utlämnas, en rättvis och saklig prövning.

Dessutom finns det gott om andra Sverigebilder.

”På internationella möten möts vi allt oftare av positiva kommentarer och ibland ryggdunkningar”, skrev statsminister Fredrik Reinfeldt tillsammans med finansminister Anders Borg, utrikesminister Carl Bildt och biståndsminister Gunilla Carlsson på DN Debatt häromveckan.

De fyra moderaterna beskrev ”en ny bild av Sverige”. Omvärlden imponeras av starka offentliga finanser, höga tillväxttal, utbyggd välfärd och minimal korruption i ett jämställt samhälle.

Snömos och självberöm?

Inte enbart.

Svenska Dagbladet skrev igår om Yoshihiro Sato, japansk doktorand i Göteborg, som rönt uppmärksamhet hemma i Japan med boken Swedish Paradox, om högskattelandet med den starka tillväxten och de många möjligheterna för medborgarna.

Inte nog med att det finns många olika Sverigebilder. De kan, och bör, dessutom förändras över tid:

I dagarna recenseras Klas Åmarks 700-sidiga Att bo granne med ondskan, ett storverk om forskningsrönen kring Sveriges relationer med Nazityskland. Tala om ett behov av att nyansera en Sverigebild.

Nämnden för Sverigefrämjande i utlandet, NSU, har konstaterat att omvärldens bild av Sverige är övervägande positiv men ”för otydlig och splittrad”. I arbetet med att stärka Sverigebilden sägs ett ord vara centralt:

Progressivitet.

Sverige skall framstå som progressivt, i en bild byggd dels på framsteg och reformer, dels på skydd av medborgerliga fri- och rättigheter.

Igår beklagade Fredrik Reinfeldt den Sverigebild som nu sprids från England. Och statsministern har rätt när han betonar att det är kvinnors rättstrygghet som står på spel.

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